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Posts Tagged ‘Valresultat’

FRONT PAGE | Den 9 oktober 1959 hade The Guardian rubriken ”Conservatives bring off the hat-trick” på sin framsida.

The Guardian Friday 9 October 1959

Detta året tog Conservative Party sin tredje raka valseger. Harold Macmillan blev ny premiärminister.

The Guardian – tidigare Manchester Guardian – visar på sin hemsida fler av sina framsidor med anledning av valen i Storbritannien mellan åren 1945-2005.

Framsidan hade också en kort notis om Margaret Thatcher som detta år tog plats i parlamentet.

It supplements the returns available up to 3am with a projection by ‘the Ferranti Pegasus computer, in a special service for the Guardian’. Pegasus reckoned the Tories would manage 368 seats; in the end they only got to 349. The third column, after the double-column lead, offers hopes of a Liberal revival – Jeremy Thorpe had won North Devon, the first seat they had gained at a general election since 1950, although by the end of the night that would be balanced with a loss. Feeling at party HQ was that the results ‘provided a solid base on which to found Mr Grimond’s programme of overtaking Labour as the principal Opposition in time’. A box in the right-hand column welcomes the first new woman member of the new parliament: ‘a barrister, Mrs M. Thatcher’

Bild: The Guardian den 9 oktober 1959.

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RESULTAT: Charles Moore, kolumnist på The Spectator, har ett minst sagt originellt sätt att förutspå vem som kommer att vinna ett val.

Hans föga vetenskapliga sätt att förutspå en valseger baseras på att det parti som ”förtjänar” att vinna också kommer att vinna.

Han förutspådde väljarna skulle rösta fram ett ”hung parliament” vilket skulle resultera i att inget parti kunde bilda egen majoritet. Så småningom blev det också en regeringskoalition mellan Tories och Liberaldemokraterna.

This column’s theory of British general elections in modern times is simple: all results since the war have been deserved. Labour deserved to win big in 1945 and 1997. The Conservatives deserved their decisive victory in 1979, and their crushing one in 1983. The more ‘nuanced’ results were also deserved. Labour deserved to win in 2005, but only grudgingly, on a low poll. The ‘Who governs Britain?’ election of February 1974 returned exactly the deserved answer to that question, which was, ‘We’re not sure.’ Can this rule turn into a predictor? It seems clear already that Labour deserves to lose this time — for reasons too numerous to mention. But it is not yet clear that the Tories deserve to win, and the opinion polls accurately reflect that doubt. So, at the time of writing, the just result would be a hung parliament. Minds are not made up. For the Tories, this makes the actual campaign more critical than any since February 1974 (which they bungled).

Nu gäller det bara att applicera detta på årets svenska val. Det är fritt fram.

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