Posts Tagged ‘The Observer’

OpinionsundersökningPOLITIK | Om ett parti har monopol på en fråga tenderar detta minska sannolikheten för att övriga partier följer efter.

Att EU-kritiska partier har haft stora framgångar i Europaparlamentsvalet betyder inte att de också har tagit sitt land ett steg närmare ett utträde. Tvärt om.

Detta är dåliga nyheter för UKIP som vill att Storbritannien lämnar EU. Det samma kan sägas om Sverigedemokraterna.

Charles Moore i The Spectator har funnit att det sannolikt finns en korrelation mellan ökat stöd för EU-medlemskapet och att UKIP har fått ett sådant stort stöd i väljarkåren.

Osäkra väljare tenderar nämligen stödja status quo.

Few have noticed that the rise of UKIP coincides with a fall in the number of people saying they will vote to get Britain out of the EU. The change is quite big. The latest Ipsos Mori poll has 54 per cent wanting to stay in (and 37 per cent wanting to get out), compared with 41 per cent (with 49 per cent outers) in September 2011. If getting out becomes the strident property of a single party dedicated to the purpose, it becomes highly unlikely that the majority will vote for it. The main parties will conspire to push the idea of ​​the EU exit to the fringe. Waverers will wobble towards the status quo. It will be 1975 all over again, which is surely what David Cameron has always intended.

Så här ser opinionsinstitutens siffror ut i Storbritannien mellan de som vill att Storbritannien lämnar respektive stannar kvar som medlem i EU.

Lämna EU: November 2012 56% / Stanna i EU: November 2012 30%

Lämna EU: Juli 2013 46% / Stanna i EU: Juli 2013 36%

Lämna EU: Mars 2014 39% / Stanna i EU: Mars 2014 41%

Lämna EU: Maj 2014 37% / Stanna i EU: Maj 2014 54%

Man skulle kunna komplettera detta med att säga att sambandet troligtvis bara gäller stora strukturella frågor.

Sambandet verkar inte gälla ”vardagliga” frågor som t.ex. om man vill ha mer eller mindre resurser till vård, skola och omsorg. Eller om man vill höja eller sänka skatten.

Här konkurrerar partier ofta med att lägga sig så nära varandra som möjligt.

Det kan också finnas en skillnad mellan länder beroende på antalet etablerade partier. Det är t.ex. först nu som UK Independence Party har lyckats slå igenom i ett val.

I Sverige är vi vanna vid betydligt fler partier.

Med Sverigedemokraterna är vi nu uppe i åtta partier i riksdagen. I kommande val kommer vi även att få se ett nionde parti – Feministiskt initiativ – konkurrera om medieuppmärksamheten.

Men det förändrar inte det faktum att Sverigedemokraterna är det enda riktigt EU-kritiska partiet i riksdagen.

Inget annat parti intog ett strikt EU-kritiskt perspektiv i EU-valet.

Källor: The Spectator har använt siffror från följande opinionsundersökningar: Opinium / Observer; YouGov / Channel 5; Zapera; Ipsos / Mori 

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Everyone is always in favour of general economy and particular expenditure.

………………Premiärminister Anthony Eden, The Observer, 17 juni 1956

Bild: BBC

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VAL | Boris Johnsons seger i Londons borgmästarval var en av få ljuspunkter för premiärminister David Cameron och de konservativa i lokalvalen.

För koalitionspartnern Liberal Democrats blev valet en än större förlust. Daniel Boffey och Toby Helm i The Observer skriver:

Thursday’s local elections and a string of referendums in cities up and down the country, which saw Cameron’s flagship plan for elected mayors rejected, were shocking for both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. While the Tories lost 405 seats, the Liberal Democrats had an equally, if not more, disastrous night, shedding more than 300 seats and sinking under a national total of 3,000 for the first time in their history. Boris Johnson’s victory against Ken Livingstone in the race for mayor of London offered some relief to the Conservatives, but Tory celebrations were muted because the contest turned out to be far closer than had been expected.

It is not just the fact that Tories and Lib Dems fared badly themselves that is alarming activists and MPs of both parties – and raising doubts in the minds of many about the electoral effects of being in coalition. It is also that Labour – dismissed by the coalition as moribund and lacking in ideas under Ed Miliband – outperformed everyone’s expectations, most of all its own. ”Labour thrive on bad day for Tories” was yesterday’s front-page headline in the normally Cameron-supporting Times.

As well as the symbolic gain from a Tory-Lib Dem coalition of Birmingham, Britain’s second largest city, Labour made progress in many former Tory strongolds across the south, raising hopes that the ”southern discomfort” that prevented it from forming a government from 1979 until the arrival of Tony Blair is easing again. Exeter and coastal towns such as Great Yarmouth, Southampton and Plymouth were claimed by the supposedly ineffectual Miliband’s party.

In all, Labour added 823 seats, way beyond its most optimistic estimates. In Wales, Labour retook control of 10 councils, including Cardiff, Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, Newport and Swansea, recording its best results since local government was reorganised in 1996. And in Scotland it did far better than it expected, holding on to Glasgow city council, where it saw off the SNP, and capturing Edinburgh. London was a blot, but one that Labour passed off on the candidate.

Bild: Grafik från The Observer den 6 maj 2012. (The Guardian publicerar allt material från The Observer på sin hemsida.)

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LABOUR HAR tagit fram en ny kampanjstrategi som skall utmåla premiärminister David Cameron som en traditionell konservativ på högerkanten.

Enligt det hemliga dokumentet som The Observar har tagit del av gör Labour bedömningen att Cameron och Conservative Party har övergett sin mittenposition när det gäller lag och ordning, immigrations- och välfärdsfrågor.

Målet nu är att definiera Cameron som ”recognisably rightwing”.

Dokumentet har skrivits av en gammal avhoppad Torypolitiker – Shaun Woodward – som nu leder en enhet inom Labour med ansvar att attackera de konservativa.

Woodward warns, however, that while there are opportunities for Labour there are ”significant political risks if Labour fails to handle the change with alacrity, strength and sensitivity”. There are fears that some of the rightwing rhetoric employed by the government in recent months may chime with large sections of the public, as it did in the 1980s during Margaret Thatcher’s premiership. Senior figures in the party have also conceded that they have struggled to land a blow on Cameron, who is regarded as a skilful manipulator of his image.


”At the last election we faced a Conservative party (and a Conservative leader in David Cameron) whose strategic goal was to decontaminate their brand, intending to present themselves as reformed, modern, centrist and pragmatic,” it says. ”Repositioning on issues like the NHS and the environment was used as evidence of the emergence of a ‘compassionate conservatism’ – a phrase first used by George W Bush prior to his election as president. Cameron was effective in promoting a perception his party had changed.”


”But here is the paradox: whilst the Tories made changes before the election – intended to convince the public they were compassionate – since the election (and especially in the last few months) the Tories have taken major strides back towards their ideological roots. Buffeted by events, there is a growing incoherence between ‘liberal
conservatism’ and the increasingly shrill language the Tories are using as they vacate the centre ground.”


”Cameron clearly recognises some of the danger he faces in his repositioning. He is still seeking to separate himself out from a toxic Tory brand and has assumed a presidential role and style. But the Tories have become far less worried about inhabiting the centre ground they once cultivated and more worried about any perception of
appearing weak.

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KOMMUNIKATION: The Observer har tittat i sitt arkiv och har hittat följande nyhetsrapport från lokalvalen i februari 1907.

Rubriken var: ”Electioneering by gramophone”.

“The present county council election campaign is distinguished by a new departure in the use of the gramophone. Several candidates have delivered speeches into instruments which are to be placed on carts and driven to meetings at streets corners or other places at which the candidates are themselves unable to be present.”

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IMAGE: Vad som skulle vara en PR-katastrof för vilken annan regeringschef som helst kan premiärminister Silvio Berlusconi bara vifta bort. Omvärlden ser på med förundran.

Men hans eskapader lockar åtminstone fram humorn hos många skribenter. Carole Cadwalladr skriver i The Observer att en grupp på Facebook nu planerar att marschera mot Berlusconis villa utanför Milano.

There, they will chant slogans and throw condoms and knickers in protest. This, apparently, recalls the hail of coins that a crowd pelted on former prime minister Bettino Craxi when he was accused of corruption, although there are some who worry that it’s about as useful as throwing cocaine and vodka at Charlie Sheen’s house, a man who has taken Berlusconi’s concept of bunga bunga and raised it to a whole new level.

In response, Berlusconi has continued his one-man PR blitz, phoning a third late-night television show in less than a month, this time calling it ”a television whorehouse”. To clarify: apparently this was not a compliment.

Apropå den senaste skandalen skriver Beppe Severgnini, kolumnist på Corriere della Sera, följande i Time:

”Bunga bunga” is reportedly the Berlusconi crowd’s name for sexual after-dinner stints, but it could equally be the sound of many Italians’ heads being banged against a wall in disbelief. Not everyone’s, though. Berlusconi, who denies the allegations against him, refuses to appear before magistrates, claiming he is being persecuted. His poll ratings are still buoyant, partly because of a lack of other political options, and the center-left opposition is split into six squabbling parties. That said, one asks oneself what a head of government has to do to elicit criticism, an objection or a raised eyebrow from his supporters. What is Italy’s tolerance threshold?

Läs mer: “Why Berlusconi Will Probably Avoid Jail Time” av Stephan Faris i Time.

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POLITIK: Liberaldemokraterna överlevde valet i Oldham East and Saddleworth. Nu kommer kritik mot premiärminister David Camerons valstrategi som var skräddarsydd för att hjälpa liberalerna.

Fyllnadsvalet i ”Old and Sad” sågs allmänt som ett test för om Liberal Democrats skulle kunna återhämta sig från den massiva kritiken mot partiet.

Många medlemmar anser att partiet anpassat sig till Tory partiet och övergett sina hjärtefrågor i regeringsställning.

Partiet gick nu fram om än bara marginellt (från 31,6 % till 31,9%). Labour däremot gick starkt fram i valet och stärkte sin ledning med över 3000 röster. Tory partiet kom som väntat in på tredje plats.

Men nu kommer intern kritik från högerflygeln inom konservativa partiet om att ledningen medvetet höll tillbaka för att liberalerna inte skulle få en valförlust på halsen.

Douglas Carswell, konservativ parlamentsledamot, var mycket kritisk mot partiets ledarskap enligt The Guardian:

I hope that those at the top of the Tory party will reflect on the fact that if we want to win elections [in the future] it is helpful if we don’t have cabinet meetings in London where we discuss what can be done to allow other parties win elections. That rather pulled the plug on our efforts.

Han har också kritiserat partikollegan Nick Boles – som står premiärminister David Cameron nära – för att han har föreslagit en allians mellan Tory och Liberaldemokraterna inför nästa val 2015.

There was a game of clever word play making very nuanced points about the extent to which you have either a full merger or pact with the Lib Dems,” Carswell said. ”These clever-clever word games might sound important in the Westminster bubble but they prove very counter-productive to the Conservative interest in the country and they need to stop.

Både partiledare Nick Clegg och Ed Miliband kan nu andas ut efter att ha fått utså mycket kritik från sina respektive partimedlemmar. Frågan är om det nu istället blir David Cameron som kommer att stå i skottgluggen för sina medlemmars kritik.

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