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Posts Tagged ‘New African’

VAL 2015 | Muhammadu Buhari, efter tre tidigare misslyckade försök, står som vinnare i presidentvalet i Afrikas folkrikaste stat.

Daily Trust 2 april 2015Daily Trust, 2 april 2015

President Goodluck Jonathan har erkänt valförlusten. Detta är första gången i Nigerias historia som makten, får vi hoppas, kommer att överlämnas i god demokratisk ordning.

This Day 1 april 2015This Day, 1 april 2015

Här på sidan är hur tre nigerianska tidningar har rapporterat från valkampanjen de senaste dagarna.

Sunday Trust 29 mars 2015Sunday Trust, 29 mars 2015.

James Schneider, i New African, skriver så här om varför Jonathan strategi för att bli återvald misslyckades.

The battleground regions of the South West and the North Central, both of which were won by Jonathan when the candidates last faced off in 2011, swung heavily to Buhari. He won them both on 22.5% and 20.5% swings respectively. To win the election, Buhari’s All Progressives Congress needed a national swing of 9% in its direction to secure victory, all things being equal.

From the beginning of the results process on Monday afternoon, it became clear that Jonathan’s strategy of relying on the core vote that helped him defeat Buhari comfortably in 2011 was not paying off. Jonathan had banked on stocking up a massive lead of around 9 million votes – approximately half the total thought needed to win the election overall in South South and South East states.

That failure of that plan was evident throughout Tuesday, as Jonathan’s supporters saw PDP majorities whittled down in state after state.

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VAL New African hann inte mer än komma ut med sitt stora valnummer innan man sköt upp valet i Nigeria. Idag är det dags igen.

New African February 2015

Valet skulle ha hållits i februari men sköts upp för att ge militären möjlighet att återerövra områden som kontrolleras av den islamistiska terrororganisationen Boko Haram.

Nu har man förlängt valet till på söndag i vissa delar p.g.a. av våldet, men också p.g.a. tekniska problem i vissa valbås. ”[A]bout 300 polling units out of about 150,000”, enligt en talesperson från valkommissionen Inec.

Valet förväntas bli det jämnaste sedan landet blev självständigt 1963.

Men även om det förväntas bli jämt har president Goodluck Jonathans oförmåga att hantera landets största säkerhetshot allvarligt skadat hans möjligheter att bli återvald.

Oavsett valresultatet kommer Jonathans misslyckande försök att besegra Boko Haram definiera hans tid som president enligt Bala Mohammed Liman i New African.

Boko Haram’s reign of terror has highlighted the weaknesses in the Nigerian state but also affected perceptions of the president. Goodluck Jonathan, Nigeria’s president since the death of his predecessor Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010, found himself tasked with the job of managing this insurgency early in his presidency. He is not considered to have risen to the challenge, and is often depicted as an indecisive leader, incapable of governing such a pluralistic nation.

Far from being brought to heel, under Jonathan’s watch Boko Haram has grown and morphed into something significantly more threatening, dangerous and destabilizing.

[…]

Jonathan’s communications strategy on Boko Haram has likewise been unsuccessful. He did not comment on the April 2014 abductions of over 200 girls from a school in Chibok for over two weeks after the event. Officials have made claims about the immediate return of some or all of the girls that have severely damaged his administration’s credibility. The girls have still not been rescued.

He did visit Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State, on 15 January to commiserate with some of the displaced persons from the recent Baga attack and also to show support for the armed forces. This is a good gesture. However, many of his critics see this as too little, too late – just an attempt to win votes. Evidence for this more cynical view may be found in the speed with which Jonathan condemned the attacks on Charlie Hebdo in Paris, calling them “dastardly”, while failing to comment on the ongoing massacre in Baga.

At times, Jonathan has appeared unwilling to take Boko Haram as seriously as he should. Various blame games have further dented his image. His administration has previously suggested that Cameroon was not doing enough to counter Boko Haram’s cross-border threat. His wife, Patience, alleged that the abduction of the Chibok girls was carried out to embarrass her husband. Interestingly, this narrative has been picked up on by his supporters, who believe that the president’s failure to effectively tackle Boko Haram has to do with enemies within the government who continue to sabotage his efforts, rather than his or the military’s incapacity. The president’s 2012 declaration that the group had sympathisers within the government, while not providing names or evidence to support this claim, suggests that this is either another excuse or an example of weakness, with Jonathan failing to expose these individuals.

The Africa Report March 2015

Huvudmotståndaren Muhammadu Buhari  har byggt mycket av sin image på att han är mannen som kan ta itu med landets omfattande korruption. Men budskapet har modifierats under valrörelsen.

Patric Smith, redaktör The Africa Report, skriver:

In Abuja these days, politicians on all sides preface their remarks with a reference to a ‘dangerous time’ for the country.

A banker and strong supporter of President Goodluck Jonathan laments that neither the ruling People’s Democratic Party nor the opposition All Progressives Congress have shown a will to accept defeat at all, let alone gracefully.

”We don’t have a good record of managing close election results,” he says.

Nigeria’s most threatening crises have been resolved by the political, military and business elites stitching together backroom deals.

There seems little scope for compromise between backers of Jonathan – the first president from the Niger Delta, who started out with a serious agenda to reform power and agriculture – and his challenger Muhammadu Buhari, a tough former military leader whose anti-corruption record has made him wildly popular in the north and parts of the south-west.

Yet following claims last year by Lamido Sanusi, the former central bank governor, that the state oil company had failed to transfer more than $20bn to the government’s accounts, it is the determination of Buhari – himself a former oil minister – to promote accountability that boosts his poll ratings.

Now, his message to worried politicians and businesspeople is that he will focus on the future and not spend government time on probes into Nigeria’s multitudinous historic scandals.

Tidskriftsomslag: New African, februari 2015 och The Africa Report, mars 2015.

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AFRIKA | När valet den 4 mars var över hade sonen till Kenyas förste president och grundare vunnit över sonen till en tidigare vicepresident.

New African april 2013 nr 527

Under sju års tid hade Raila Odinga och hans vicepresidentkandidat Kalonzo Musyoko varit förhandstippade att segra.

Men när rösträkningen var klar den 9 mars hade Uhuru Kenyatta och hans vicepresidentkandidat William Ruto lyckats ta hem segern redan i första valomgången.

Alla opinionsinstitut hade uteslutet att Kenyatta skulle kunna ta hem en sådan tidig seger. De tre viktigaste instituten – Infotrak, Consumer Insight och Strategic Africa – hade t.ex. alla Odinga i ledning i sina februarimätningar.

Vad hände i valrörelsen som fick väljarna att svänga?

Wanhoji Kabukuru, på tidskriften New African, har listat tio skäl till varför valet gick som det gick. Det är tio punkter som kan vara relevanta även i valkampanjer utanför Kenya.

1) Know your history and audience: That Odinga was a poor student of history and appeared not to have a clue about the message his audience wanted […] Odinga’s “you can’t run a government through Skype” played well into his opponents’ hands who had already branded themselves as the “Digital Team” offering new “transformative leadership”. Odinga fell pretty well into the trap they had set for him as an “analogue” politician. By the time he realised that the youth vote was swaying towards Kenyatta, it was too late.

2) The faith and emotions connection: Kenyatta comes from a strict Catholic background and Ruto is a passionate Pentecostal Christian. [The] charm offensive in the form of “prayer rallies” was not only aimed at winning the election but also winning sympathy. […] It worked and galvanised faith-based support groups. Odinga’s no-nonsense tough image of a reformer floundered miserably.

3) Keep away from pollsters: For years, Odinga’s campaign relied heavily on pollsters, who continuously painted him as leading in the polls. This costly mistake made Odinga lethargic and made him live in a “make-believe-bubble” […].

4) A strong ally as a running mate: It pays to have a socially strong, politically connected, and intellectually endowed running mate. […] The same cannot be said of Odinga’s running mate, former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka. Even when they paired, their body language betrayed the unease beneath.

5) Get your foreign policy right: Four weeks to the election, a number of foreign envoys, notably the Dutch, the British, the Americans and the French, came out strongly to urge Kenyans to reject the Jubilee Coalition led by Kenyatta. They threatened “consequences” (read sanctions) if Kenyatta and Ruto were elected. Their interference put the Jubilee coalition on a much-needed trajectory and handed them a golden opportunity to insinuate that the Western powers had somebody in mind. Odinga’s silence on the issue did not help matters either […] In the end, Odinga was seen as a proxy for Western interests. […]

6) On your way up, be good and courteous to everyone: As Odinga rose in political stature to become prime minister, he relied heavily on the core support of regional leaders who coalesced around him in 2007. However as soon as he became premier, he began to antagonise his key backers who had grassroots support. […]

7) Empathise with your rivals’ misfortunes [Både Kenyatta och Ruto anklagas av International Criminal Court för vara ansvariga för våldet under valet 2007-2008.] This lack of empathy led to Odinga’s core Rift Valley supporters deserting him. When he returned to seek their votes by asking for forgiveness for his “oversight”, the damage had already been done.

8) Don’t forget good deeds and surround yourself with sober advisers: In 2007, Odinga had achieved political magnetism that no other Kenyan leader had ever done in the country’s history, apart from maybe the first president, Jomo Kenyatta. […] He articulated government policy expertly. Sadly after joining the government, he sidelined his core group of professional advisers and opted for individuals who did not have the same clout. […]

9) Keep up with the times: When Odinga launched his 2013 campaign, it was a pale shadow of the 2007 one, which was refined, slick, and well resourced. […] His message had not changed from 2007 and his ideals of 30 years ago had not moved on with the times to reflect the changes demanded by Kenya’s new constitution. His opponents painted him as old and instead of ignoring the fact, he played the statesman card and got stuck in defending his age.

10) Keep your family out of politics: By the time Odinga realised that his family’s dalliance in public service was a liability for his presidential ambitions, it was too late. […] As his image-makers struggled to spin this issue, Kenyatta and Ruto, who ensured that no such scenario confronted them, had already run away with the prize.

Läs mer: Kabukurus ”The return of President Kenyatta” och ”Uhuru and the Catholic connection”.

Bild: Tidskriftsomslaget är New African april 2013.

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