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Posts Tagged ‘Nate Silver’

KOMMER Barack Obama att bli återvald 2012? Nate Silver har analyserat tre faktorer som traditionellt används för att försöka förutspå ett presidentval.

Utifrån dessa faktorer – presidentens förtroendesiffror, ekonomins utveckling och de republikanska presidentkandidaternas ideologiska profil – har Silver skapat fyra sannolika valscenarier där Mitt Romney alternativt Rick Perry är Obamas utmanare.

Obama has gone from a modest favorite to win re-election to, probably, a slight underdog. Let’s not oversell this. A couple of months of solid jobs reports, or the selection of a poor Republican opponent, would suffice to make him the favorite again.

Nevertheless, this is an unusual circumstance. Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and both Bushes all looked like the favorite to win a year in advance of their re-election battles, either having strong approval ratings or good-enough ones accompanied by robust economic numbers. When we look at the last eight elected presidents, only Carter faced a situation worse than Obama’s: approval ratings in the low 30s rather than low 40s, the likelihood rather than the mere possibility of a recession, a primary challenge rather than a clear path to renomination and a crisis in Iran rather than a string of foreign-policy victories.

[…]

Average these four scenarios together and the probabilities come out to almost exactly 50-50. A month or two ago, when Perry and Romney appeared about equally likely to be the Republican nominee, it would therefore have been proper to think of the election as a toss-up.

With Perry having slumped in the polls, however, and Romney the more likely nominee, the odds tilt slightly toward Obama joining the list of one-termers. It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans. But Obama’s position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him.

Övrigt: Tidskriftsomslaget är The New York Times Magazine en 6 november 2011. FiveThirtyEight är Nate Silvers blogg på The New York Times.

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EN AV DE stora överraskningarna vid republikanska partiets presidentdebatt i New Hampshire var att Michele Bachmann gjorde så bra ifrån sig. Och idag har hon officiellt tillkännagivet att hon kandiderar.

I en opinionsundersökning ligger hon nästan lika med Mitt Romney som alla tror har störst chans att bli nominerad till partiets presidentkandidat.

”The Iowa Poll in the Des Moines Sunday Register — the first survey of the season — shows that Mr. Romney and Ms. Bachmann lead the crowded Republican field. Mr. Romney had 23 percent of support, and Ms. Bachmann had 22 percent.”

Och så här skriver Nate Silver på sin blogg:

Ms. Bachmann has a lot of natural talent, as was on display during the debate. Unlike Ms. [Sarah] Palin, she seems to recognize that it takes a village to run a presidential campaign, having surrounded herself with competent advisers like Ed Rollins, who managed Mike Huckabee’s overachieving campaign in 2008. Even those who are skeptical about her candidacy would probably concede that she has a good chance of winning Iowa, where she was born and will devote much of her attention.

Övrigt: Se New Hampshire debatten på YouTube. – första avsnittet, andra, tredje, fjärde, femte, sjätte, sjunde, åttondenionde och tionde avsnittet.

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MÄTMETODER: Det har blivit allt svårare och dyrare att hämta in vetenskapligt grundade mätresultat för de amerikanska opinionsinstituten.

Opinionsinstitutens inflytande på både politik och politiker har ökat samtidigt som deras metoder och mätresultat alltmer har blivit ifrågasatta.

Att få tag i data av god kvalitet har försvårats inte minst p.g.a. mobilteknologin och Internet.

Lisa Lerer på Bloomberg Businessweek rapporterar:

”Something has got to change,” says Nate Silver, who ranks pollsters on his popular website, FiveThirtyEight.com. [Silver] is embroiled in a polling controversy of his own: He has called Zogby International the ”worst pollster in the world,” arguing that Zogby’s Internet-based surveys rely on an unscientific sample of participants who volunteer on the Zogby website. Chief Executive Officer John Zogby says his results are accurate, and spokeswoman Leann Atkinson says the company is preparing an article questioning Silver’s methodology for ranking pollsters.

Polls are attracting attention because they increasingly feed an Internet-driven appetite for 24/7 political news. Negative poll numbers can deliver a fatal blow to candidates or make it difficult to raise money and build grassroots momentum. […]

The cost of conducting scientifically sound polling has increased. Scott Keeter, director of survey research for the Pew Research Center and incoming president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, says only about 20 percent of people contacted agree to take part in political surveys. That reluctance has forced pollsters to try new methods to get a statistically sound sample size. More than 20 percent of all U.S. households now only use cell phones, according to government statistics released in May. Including those users in surveys drives up polling costs because lists of cell-phone users cost twice as much as standard lists of registered voters, says J. Ann Selzer, president of polling firm Selzer & Co […] ”Every month, it’s harder and harder to do this job and do it right,” says Selzer.

Many research organizations are turning to the Internet, though that method is also fraught. To get a correct sample, every participant must have an equal chance of being contacted, says Selzer, the top-ranked pollster in Silver’s 2008 rankings. A truly random sample is hard to achieve online, given that there’s no national registry of e-mail addresses.  

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