Posts Tagged ‘Kristna väljare’

KOMMER HON att kandidera eller inte? I november 2010 skissade John Heilemann på ett scenario för hur Sarah Palin skulle kunna bli republikanska partiets kandidat inför presidentvalet 2012.

Vad som har hänt sedan artikeln skrevs är att Michele Bachmann har klivit in i ringen. Till skillnad från Palin har hon redan meddelat att hon vill bli partiets presidentkandidat.

Politiskt och ideologiskt ligger de två väldigt nära varandra. Skulle Palin därför tillkännage att hon står till förfogande skulle båda konkurrera om exakt samma röster inom Tea Party-rörelsen och bland de kristna socialkonservativa väljarna.

[T]he tea party and its populist brethren seem likely to emerge as the new Christian right, only more powerful—not merely exercising an effective veto over any nominee but altering the underlying dynamics of the race. “There will be two simultaneous primaries: a mainstream-conservative primary and a primary in the anti-Establishment wing of the party,” says John Weaver, McCain’s guru in 2000 and the early part of his run in 2008. “And then there’ll be a playoff down the road between the winners of the two.”


Beyond the intensity of her grassroots following, Palin would bring to the race two other significant advantages, the first being the calendar. That she would be the prohibitive favorite in Iowa, where the caucuses are dominated by Evangelical voters, is considered a given by most strategists. But, in fact, all of the first four states might provide fertile ground for Palin.


Palin’s second advantage, nearly incalculable in its scale and implications, is her ability simultaneously to drive and saturate the electronic media, new and old—the way that cable chronicles her every twitch, that with a trifling tweet she often earns 24 hours of breathless nonstop coverage. “It’ll be something that we’ve never seen before,” says John Weaver. “Obama wasn’t like that until the general election.”

Övrigt: Tidskriftsomslaget ovan är från den 1 november 2010. New York har samlat sina omslag här.

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