Posts Tagged ‘John O’Sullivan’

UKRAINA Kartor har i alla tider använts för att både roa och sprida propaganda. Här är tre tidskriftsomslag på temat rysk expansionism.

The Economist 19-25 April 2014

The Ukraine crisis: The boys from the blackstuff”. The Economist, 19-25 april 2014.

Russia’s short-term objective is to sabotage the elections. “National elections cannot take place without Donetsk,” says Maksim Shevchenko, a journalist close to the Kremlin. Its long-term aim is to stop Ukraine ever moving towards Europe. Given that the February revolution was powered by aspirations to do just that, this would provoke unrest in Kiev and in western Ukraine. That is not a problem for Mr Putin. Russia wants to turn Ukraine back into a buffer state, with a level of disorder it can turn up or down. In the end, Ukraine may end up barely a state at all.

Time 31 mars 2014

Old World Orderav Robert D. Kaplan. Time, 31 mars 2014.

So what has Putin done? The Russian leader has used geography to his advantage. He has acted, in other words, according to geopolitics, the battle for space and power played out in a geographical setting–a concept that has not changed since antiquity (and yet one to which many Western diplomats and academics have lately seemed deaf).

The Spectator 8 mars 2014

Europe’s nightmare neighbour” av John O’Sullivan. The Spectator, 8 mars 2014.

Much will depend on what we think Putin’s longer-term strategy is. Does he want to reverse the revolutions of 1989 and 1991 and restore Russian control over central and eastern Europe? Or does he have the lesser ambition — itself not an appealing prospect — of creating small wars and irredentist enclaves in countries formerly within the Soviet orbit to keep them under Moscow’s control? It is likely that he does not know the answer himself.

Om krisen i Ukraina har fört något gott med sig så är det att väst inte längre kan ignorera kopplingen mellan maktpolitik och geopolitik.

Det är bara att fråga Vladimir Putin. Han har säkert en karta med helt andra gränser än vad man sitter med i Washington, London och Bryssel.

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ROM | När Benedictus XVI överraskande meddelade att han tänker lämna påveämbetet kastades världens minska stormakt rakt in i en valrörelse.

The Spectator 16 februari 2013

Valrörelsen är i full gång. Inte för att någon skulle vara så ohövlig och påstå att kardinalerna bedriva något så världsligt som personliga valkampanjer. Men alla ingredienserna finns där.

Påven har valts av kyrkans kardinaler sedan 1079. Och valet sker antingen genom acklamation, en kompromiss eller genom en vanlig omröstning, som pågår tills två tredjedelar plus en röst är överrens om en av kardinalerna.

Men innan man kommit så långt sker en viss positionering från de påvekandidater (och deras anhängare) som önskar bli valda.

Men det hela sker dock med lite subtilare metoder än vad man är van vid i mer traditionella valrörelser. Att öppet erkänna att man är intresserad är t.ex. ett säkert sätt att hamna på defensiven.

(Ungefär som när socialdemokratiska partiledarkandidater alltid svär på heder och samvete att man inte är intresserad. Det vill säga ända tills man bli officiellt tillfrågad av valberedningen.)

Kardinal Peter Turkson från Ghana, 64 år, har t.ex. redan meddelat att han anser att nästa påve borde komma från Sydamerika eller från … just det, Afrika.

John O’Sullivan, är executive director på Radio Liberty och tidigare talskrivaren åt Margaret Thatcher, skriver om de olika påvekandidaternas förutsättningar.

The second contribution of Benedict’s that may change the future is his selection of the papal electorate. All the cardinals who can vote were selected either by Benedict or John Paul II, which means that the conclave is weighted towards theological conservatism and a general caution. Among the other results of this tilt is that the Catholic Church in England and Wales will have no vote in the papal conclave, since the last Cardinal-Archbishop of Westminster, who is above the voting age limit at 80, and his successor, the Most Revd Vincent Nichols, who has not yet received his Red Hat, are both theological liberals. So no English Pope.

Nor is an African or Latin American cardinal, though several are touted as papabile, likely to emerge from the cloud of white smoke. Though such a pope would reflect the reality that two-thirds of Catholics live in the global south, a more pressing reality in that American and European cardinals outnumber those from Asia, Africa and Latin America by 75 to 41. Italy alone has half as many cardinals as the entire global south (and that’s if you include Australia’s formidable Cardinal Pell in the latter.) So the smart money is that the next pope wil be drawn from 21 Italian cardinals who are said to feel that two alien popes in a row amounts to anti-Italian discrimination. And they can call in chits from a friendly US church.

Betting on a papal conclave is, however, a mug’s game. The choice is heavily steered by the Holy Ghost, who, being related to an obscure family from Nazareth, often plumps for an outsider. As one can reasonably argue is that the choice is weighted toward another conservative – theological, bureaucratic, or both – from the global north.

Bild: Tidskriftsomslaget är The Specator den 16 februari 2013.

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KAMPANJ | Det är lätt att drabbas av abstinensbesvär efter en valrörelse. Botemedlet är en rejäl dos av valsanalyser.

The 2013 Campaign” av John Heilemann

New York, 19 november 2012

That the essence of Team Obama’s reelection strategy was to capitalize on his strength with what National Journal’s Ronald Brownstein calls “the coalition of the ascendant” had long been clear. Back in May, I wrote a cover story for this ­magazine laying out Chicago’s plan to focus ­laserlike on four key voting blocs: ­African-Americans, Hispanics, college-educated white women, and voters aged 18 to 29. At bottom, the Obaman theory of the case was that, despite the fragility of the recovery and the doubts many voters had about POTUS’s capacity to put America on the path to prosperity, the deft exploitation of coalition politics, together with the ruthless disqualification of Romney as a credible occupant of the Oval Office, could secure the president a second term. That in 2012, in other words, demographics would trump economics.

Obama’s new majority” av John O’Sullivan

The Spectator, 10 november 2012

‘I’ve come back to Iowa one more time to ask for your vote,’ said President Obama at an emotional ‘last ever’ campaign meeting. ‘Because this is where our movement for change began, right here. Right here.’ And his eyes briefly moistened. The nostalgia was doubtless sincere, and the address correct, but it was misleading to describe his 2012 election campaign as a continuation of his earlier ‘movement for change’. In reality, it has been a smoothly ruthless operation to distract attention from a record that has been disappointingly bereft of change. He triumphed over himself as much as over the hapless Mitt Romney.

The Party Next Time” av Ryan Lizza

The New Yorker, 19 november 2012

When historians look back on Mitt Romney’s bid for the Presidency, one trend will be clear: no Republican candidate ever ran a similar campaign again. For four decades, from Richard Nixon to Ronald Reagan through the two Bush Presidencies, the Republican Party won the White House by amassing large margins among white voters. Nixon summoned the silent majority. Reagan cemented this bloc of voters, many of whom were former Democrats. Both Bushes won the Presidency by relying on broad support from Reagan Democrats. In that time, Republicans transformed the South from solidly Democratic to solidly Republican, and they held the White House for twenty-eight out of forty years. Last Tuesday, Romney won three-fifths of the white vote, matching or exceeding what several winning Presidential candidates, including Reagan in 1980 and Bush in 1988, achieved, but it wasn’t enough.

Baksmällan i Washington” av Martin Gelin

Fokus, 9-15 november 2012

USA har en lång politisk tradition av att ställa grupper mot varandra så snart ett val närmar sig. Politiska strateger har med denna metod söndrat och härskat sig till knappa majoriteter i delstaterna och struntat i minoriteten som inte fått politisk representation. Det var den vanan Obama skulle bryta. 2008 hade hans kampanj mottot »Respect, empower, include«. I år lade man till ett sista ord: »Win«. Och med den nya förmågan att rikta kampanjer mot enskilda väljare gjorde man allt för att vinna exakt 50,1 procent av väljarna i respektive delstat.

Läs mer: Tidigare inlägg med valsanalyser från tidskriftsvärlden.

Tidskriftsomslagen: Översta är formgivet av konstnären Craig Redman. Tydligen ”all the rage” för närvarande. Mark Ulriksen skapade ”Rhapsody in Blue” för The New Yorker. Hans tankar om omslaget hittar man här.

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