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Posts Tagged ‘Iowa’

USA | Ben Carsons kampanj går bra. Åtminstone i Iowa där han ligger jämt med Donald Trump i opinionsmätningar.

Ben Carson

Så vad är det Carson gör rätt?

Enligt Tessa Berenson i Time är det fyra saker som gör hans kampanj lite okonventionell jämfört med övriga republikanska presidentkandidater.

1. Friend Facebook

Gimmicks like Pet Week, when fans post cat pics, have earned Carson 2.7 million likes, nine times as many as Jeb Bush. If Carson posts, “‘I’ve scratched my left ear,’ we get 9,000 likes,” says aide Doug Watts.

2. Sell bus space

Dubbed the Healer Hauler after an online competition, Carson’s tour bus has children’s names written on the sides for $50 a pop, “so he would remember why he was running,” says Carson’s campaign manager.

3. Keep it small

With an average donation of $50, he raised $6 million in August alone. He raised $160,000 in two days by asking supporters to chip in $40 to pay his South Carolina ballot-filing fee.

4. Stay low-key

Carson’s team made a decision never to attack another candidate, even if Carson gets hit first. “It’s not Dr. Carson,” Watts says. “It’s not the way he works.”

Läs mer: “The Secret of Ben Carson’s Campaign Success: Facebook

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USA | Ett säkert tecken på någon funderar på att ställa upp i presidentvalet är när de plötsligt börjar tillbringa mer tid i Iowa än nödvändigt.

The New York Times Magazine November 23  2014

Republikanen Chris Christie är en av dessa politiker. Mark Leibovich, chief national correspondentThe New York Times Magazine, har följt New Jerseys guvernör på något som liknar en gryende valkampanj.

“Am I willing to put up with what might happen if I win? frågar sig Christie vid ett tillfälle.  “Losing isn’t the problem,” blir svaret. “Winning is the problem.”

Här är ett utdrag från Leibovichs artikel:

There are, in the public’s imagination, two competing notions of Chris Christie. In the first, he is a cravenly ambitious Everyman, a restless former lawyer and local officeholder who, through his law partner, became a major fund-raiser for George W. Bush and was named his campaign lawyer for New Jersey. This led to Christie’s appointment as United States attorney for the state, a post that, thanks to scores of high-profile cases involving corrupt politicians, propelled him to an unlikely victory over the incumbent governor, Jon Corzine, in 2009. In this vision of Christie, his love of the media spotlight is nearly Kardashianesque.

[…]

In the other persona, Christie is a cartoonish bully and a classic embodiment of New Jersey’s brawny ethnic politics. The state’s best-known national politicians have tended to be sober cerebral people in the tradition of Bill Bradley, Tom Kean and even Woodrow Wilson, but Christie seems to better resemble his state’s pop-culture powder kegs instead: that is, the Tony Sopranos, the Snookis and the Cake Bosses. In this vision of his character, Christie is an oversize figure of little substance, one whom Richard Ford recently referred to as the “candied-yam of a governor.”

In person, Christie defies both of these caricatures. Obscured by the ambition, loose-cannon personality and, frankly, the girth, is the fact that he is an exceptionally gifted and nuanced politician. He has a preternatural talent for appearing blunt and insistent when he is being cute and obfuscating. He is also a savvy tactician. If Barack Obama were not a politician, you could imagine him being a law professor; Mitt Romney would be in business. If Christie were not a politician, he would be perfectly exhilarated to work as a political operative.

[…]

He speaks in the clipped shorthand of the campaign managers, lobbyists and political pros who operate in state and national capitals. There is a cynical expression you hear around Washington, especially in lobbying circles, that someone “gets the joke”: They know the purpose of every situation and they know the angles, they know what people are doing and trying to do and they know how to do all this without looking as if they’re doing it. At that first meeting, Christie did not agree to be interviewed, but neither did he seem displeased when I suggested that I would be following him around through the summer and fall. Christie absolutely gets the joke.

[…]

There is a theory in presidential politics that electorates will gravitate to the candidate who represents the biggest departure from the incumbent, especially if they have grown weary of that incumbent. “That’s the argument people make to me about why I should run,” Christie told me during one of our conversations. “They’re like: ‘No one could be more the opposite of Barack Obama from a personality standpoint than you. Therefore, you’re perfect.’ ” Yet one of the more compelling aspects of a Christie candidacy would be his ability to start an overdue fight within his own party.

[….]

“Christie’s strength is that people think he is being straight with them,” said Tom Kean, a former New Jersey governor and one of Christie’s political mentors. “If he kowtows to anyone, and people stop believing that he’s saying what he means, he’s going to kill the brand.”

Tidskriftsomslag: The New York Times Magazine, 23 november 2014.

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USA | Mitt Romney tog hem New Hampshire med 39,3 %. På andra plats Ron Paul (22,9 %) och på tredje plats Jon Huntsman (16,9 %).

Romney blev därmed historisk. Han är den förste republikanske presidentkandidaten som inte innehar presidentämbetet – ”non-incumbent – som ändå lyckats vinna både Iowa och New Hampshire.

Och nu börjar kriget om South Carolina.

I artikeln ”Ads bombard South Carolina airwaves ahead of primary” har Alana Semuels i Los Angeles Times tagit sig en titt på den positiva och negativa politisk reklam – inte minst kampanj videos – som väljarna möts av.

När det gäller s.k. ”attack ads” skriver Semuels:

Romney’s super PAC, Restore our Future, is repeating an anti-Newt Gingrich ad that also ran in Iowa, which begins, “Ever notice how some people make a lot of mistakes?” and goes on to detail Gingrich’s “mistakes,” such as working with Nancy Pelosi and attacking Mitt Romney. Anti-Gingrich ads helped dampen support for the candidate in Iowa, where he finished in a disappointing fourth place.

Newt Gingrich is running a new ad, “Changed?” released Tuesday, that criticizes Romney’s abortion policies when he became Massachusetts governor. Starting with a still of Romney’s face, it asks what happened after Romney changed his position to oppose abortion rights, then accuses him of appointing a judge in favor of abortion rights, expanding access to abortion pills and signing a healthcare bill with government-funded abortions. “Massachusetts moderate Mitt Romney. He can’t be trusted,” the ad concludes.

An ad paid for by Ron Paul attacks Rick Santorum as a corrupt free spender who opposed a right-to-work act and voted to raise the debt ceiling. In colors of black, white and red, it quotes criticism of Santorum from newspapers such as the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, saying that Santorum has “a record of betrayal.” It accuses him of collaborating with union leaders and being one of the “most corrupt” members of Congress.

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PORTRÄTT | Vem är Rick Santorum? Alla googlar honom nu frenetiskt efter hans imponerande andraplacering i Iowa.

Här är två bra artiklar. Den äldre (2005) från Philadelphia City Paper är en av de få längre personporträtten som finns för tillfället. Men fler lär det bli. Artikeln från tidskriften The Atlantic är skriven häromdagen.

Även om Santorum otvivelaktigt är en kristen socialkonservativ politiker visar tidningsartikeln att han tidigare har kunnat vara pragmatisk om så behövts.

Mike Newall, Philadelphia City Paper, skrev 2005:

”Democrats scratch their heads and can’t figure out why he keeps winning,” says political analyst Terry Madonna. ”They don’t understand how someone so conservative and brash can win in Pennsylvania, a centrist, light-blue state where moderates prevail.”

But, says Madonna, what you see with Santorum is not always what you get.

”Too much attention has been spent on Santorum as the cultural ideologue and not enough on his pragmatism and political opportunism,” Madonna has written. ”Inside this raging bull of a conservative is a pragmatist for whom getting re-elected always trumps ideology.”

The facts support Madonna.

According to the National Journal, the mostly highly regarded scorekeeper on Senate voting patterns, Santorum had the least conservative voting record among the Republican leadership in 2004. In fact, 32 other Republican congressmen have more conservative voting records than Santorum.

Plus, Santorum is a prince of pork, having pulled millions upon millions of dollars of federal money back into Pennsylvania, which among other things have helped spur redevelopment in Chester. Santorum also has a successful track record bringing funding and assistance to faith-based anti-poverty partnerships in Philadelphia.

Molly Ball skriver i The Atlantic:

He’s Always Worked This Hard. In Iowa, Santorum has become known for his dogged retail campaigning — he’s logged more than 350 campaign events in all of the state’s 99 counties. It was a similar story in 1990, when Santorum got his start in politics at the age of 32 by unexpectedly knocking off a seven-term incumbent congressman in a strongly Democratic district in the Pittsburgh suburbs. He knocked on thousands of doors and bludgeoned his opponent for spending too much time out of the district. His win was considered so improbable, he says, that the National Republican Congressional Committee didn’t know his name on Election Night. Thrown into an even less GOP-friendly district by redistricting in 1992, he repeated the feat, and in 1994 he knocked off an incumbent Democratic senator.

[…]

Why You’ve Never Heard of Him. Santorum hasn’t held office for over five years, having lost his 2006 bid for re-election to a third Senate term. His 18-point losing margin was the biggest loss ever by an incumbent Pennsylvania Republican senator — an inconvenient footnote to Santorum’s electability argument, which he tries to explain away by claiming 2006 was a historically bad year for the GOP nationally. Ironically for a politician who’d first won office by criticizing his rival’s absences, Santorum was damaged in that race by questions about his residency — the Pittsburgh-area home he claimed as his was occupied by renters, while his children were enrolled in a Pennsylvania-based online high school from their home in Northern Virginia. As Santorum turned to apocalyptic fear-mongering about the threat of radical Islamism, his Democratic opponent, Robert Casey Jr., replied, ”No one believes terrorists are going to be more likely to attack us because I defeat Rick Santorum. Does even he believe that?”

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USA | Mitt Romney vann men det är Rick Santorum som firar mest efter Iowa. Under större delen av sin kampanj har han varit både ignorerad och uträknad.

Men andraplatsen ser mindre imponerande ut när man jämför hur mycket han kampanjade i Iowa. Santorum kampanjade i alla delstatens 99 counties.

Romney däremot besökte delstaten mindre regelbundet. På så sätt skulle han ha möjlighet att beskriva även en andra- eller tredjeplats som acceptabelt.

I vilket fall som helst har han behövt jobba betydligt mindre för att kunna uppnå samma resultat som Santorum. Antagligen blir det svårt för Santorum att upprepa samma bravad en gång till.

Jennifer Jacobs, The Des Moines Register, skriver:

Romney’s campaign strategists had carefully staged expectations to persuade the public and media that the former Massachusetts governor could emerge strongly from Iowa with a close second- or third-place finish.

He campaigned here about a fourth as much as during his first presidential bid four years ago, when he finished second in Iowa. But Romney managed to capture the top prize anyway.

[…]

This time, Romney’s campaign machine rumbled quietly along without him. Until the final week, he popped in for only occasional visits, with an upbeat message about economic opportunity.

Romney has been like the fictional character Rocky Balboa over the course of the campaign season, as his opponents landed punch after punch on him, GOP strategist David Polyansky said.

“You find yourself screaming at the movie screen, urging him to get in the fight and hit back,” he said. “And then it dawns on you that Rocky was merely drawing in his opponents, tiring them out, and then was prepared to lay the decisive blows and score the knock out.”

[…]

Santorum’s second-place finish was a startling triumph for a candidate who last month drew only a handful of people to some of his campaign events, even after he threw himself into more than 100 days on the campaign trail, circling the state in campaign aide Chuck Laudner’s vehicle (the “Chuck Truck”).

Övrigt: Framsidan är The Des Moines Register den 4 januari 2012.

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VAL | Republikanerna i Iowa är i full gång med förberedelserna för att kunna hålla sitt ”caucus”.

Någonsin funderat på vad det innebär rent konkret?

David Sessions har skrivit en artikel på The Daily Beast som enkelt sammanfattar vad det hela handlar om.

”Caucuses are much more communal than an ordinary primary where you wait in line to cast a ballot in an individual booth. They serve as both an unofficial election and a selection process for the delegates who will represent the caucus-goers at the precinct and county levels. The two parties have slightly different caucus formats, with one of the key differences being that the Democrats vote publicly and Republicans vote by secret ballot. Each of Iowa’s 1,774 districts will have a meeting place, usually a school, church, or other public building. Only registered party members may caucus, but Iowa voters can change their party affiliation at the door if they like.”

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IOWA | Mitt Romney vinner sannolikt den 3 januari i Iowa. Trots detta har han till största delen lyckats undvika att bli utsatt för negativa attacker.

Övriga kandidater är inte lika lyckligt lottade. Både Newt Gingrich och Ron Paul är ständiga måltavlor. Och när det gäller Gingrich har attackerna gett effekt.

Adam Sorensen, på bloggen The Swampland, skriver:

Romney now leads the pack with support from 25% of likely Iowa caucus-goers, while Paul boasts 22%, both posting a five-point gain since early December. While Romney’s lead in Iowa is tenuous, his continued strength across the board raises the possibility that the establishment front-runner could win his party’s nomination in a clean sweep.

Bolstering that possibility is the collapse of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who led in Iowa with 33% less than a month ago, but has seen his front-runner status disintegrate under a torrent of negative advertising and now claims just 14% support.

Och om videon “Whoops” har Steven Yaccino på The Caucus följande att förtälja:

In early December, Restore Our Future, the pro-Romney group that put out the commercial, announced a $3.1 million ad campaign in Iowa. Reports say the group will spend $450,000 on the “Whoops” spot in the state before the caucuses on Jan. 3.

[…]

Restore Our Future has also purchased a total of $1 million in advertising time in other early primary states like South Carolina and Florida — yet another sign of the fight Mr. Gingrich has ahead of him.

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IOWA | Rick Santorum har plötsligt seglat upp på tredje plats i Iowa. Enligt CNN är det en ökning med elva procent jämfört med i början av månaden.

”Most of Santorum’s gains have come among likely caucus participants who are born-again or evangelical, and he now tops the list among that crucial voting bloc, with support from 22% of born-agains compared to 18% for Paul, 16% for Romney, and 14% for Gingrich.” Allt enligt Keating Holland som är CNN Polling Director.

Santorum har tidigare lovat dra sig ur republikanernas presidentvalskampanj om han inte den 3 januari i Iowa lyckas vända den negativa trenden för sin kampanj. ”If I finish dead last behind the pack I’m going to pack up and go home but I don’t think that’s going to happen”. 

Santorum har även fått en viss uppmärksamhet för sin senaste video ”Pop Up”. Dustin Lushing Newser skriver t.ex.:

GOP hopeful Rick Santorum’s latest campaign ad doesn’t exactly scream 2012. The video is seemingly inspired by VH1’s cult classic TV show Pop Up Video, which was a huge hit after it debuted in 1996 (it was resurrected in October of this year).

”It’s the bubble-popping sound effect that really makes it”, skriver Joe Coscarelli på Daily Intel.

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RICK PERRYS verbala förmåga har inte imponerat i tv-debatterna. Vad göra? Jo, meddela att han själv agerar medan andra bara pratar.

If you’re looking for a slick politician or a guy with great Teleprompter skills, we already have that and he’s destroying our economy. I’m a doer, not a talker. In Texas, we created 40 percent of the new jobs in the entire country since June of 2009. We cut a record $15 billion from our state budget.

The Economist har en rolig kommentar till att Perry tar så lätt på sin egen oförmåga att kommunicera sin politik.

Not to be overly pedantic, but talking is a kind of doing. Indeed, talking is primarily how one gets things done in politics. How does Mr Perry convey that he is a doer, and not a talker? By talking. What else is there? Interpretative dance? A presidential candidate unable to best a foe in a public exchange, or to communicate his position on a complex issue when the heat is on, is about as useful as a one-legged fullback.

Detta är Perrys andra reklamfilm för tv i Iowa. Hans första accentuerade också hans förmåga att skapa jobb.

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DEBBATEN MELLAN de republikanska presidentkandidaterna blev den uppgörelse mellan Mitt Romney och Rick Perry som alla väntat sig.

Romney lyckades lägga sig på tryggt avstånd från högerflanken utan att helt kapa banden. Han distanserade sig från Tea Party-rörelsen utan att låta som deras motståndare. Och han behöll fokus på debattens – och sin egen huvudfråga – ekonomin.

När han även signalerade att han ville rädda Social Security – snarare än montera ner densamma – lyckades han framstå som en kandidat som skulle kunna locka även missnöjda demokrater och independents.

Problemet är att han först måste vinna den republikanska valrörelsen innan han ens kommer i närheten av Barack Obama. Frågan är om han uppfattas som tillräckligt konservativ bland de republikanska väljare som kokar av ilska över utvecklingen i USA?

Michele Bachmann, vinnaren i Iowas ”straw poll”, var mycket påläst men var mindre framträdande än vanligt. Mycket p.g.a. att hon under denna debatt fick mindre tidsutrymme.

Kirsten Powers skriver:

Romney held his place in the top tier with a polished performance, while Perry didn’t live up to the hype. His answers were marked by a very Palin-esque wandering that left the viewer puzzled, as when he claimed that Texas has so many uninsured people because of the federal government. Huh?

More important, Perry decided to double down on his earlier claim that Social Security is a “Ponzi scheme,” something that likely won’t go over with the older voters who dominate party primaries and general elections. Romney engaged him on the issue, insisting, “our nominee has to be someone who isn’t committed to abolishing Social Security.” That’s the understatement of the year. The Romney camp pounced on the misstep with a press release blasting: “PERRY DOES NOT BELIEVE SOCIAL SECURITY SHOULD EXIST.”

Övrigt: Fler kommentarer finns bl.a. på The Daily Beast. Se förutom debatten i Kalifornien även förra i Iowa.

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