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Posts Tagged ‘Gallup’

USA | Än har Mitt Romney inte vunnit. Söndag natt hoppade Jon Huntsman av och gav Romney sitt stöd. Men i South Carolina knappar Newt Gingrich in.

The Economist ägnar stort utrymme åt Romney i sitt senaste nummer. I den längre artikeln ”Towards the coronation” skriver man:

Almost 60% deem Mr Romney an “acceptable” nominee, according to Gallup, a polling firm, a higher proportion than any of his rivals. Strikingly, he received the blessing of both moderate and conservative Republicans in equal proportion. Most soundings show Mr Romney running better against Mr Obama than any of the other candidates—a fact not lost on primary voters.

Some right-wing pundits worry that Mr Romney will fail to excite the party’s base, and thus depress turnout on election day. But elections are won among swing voters, and he holds far more allure for them than any of his rivals. He is strongly supported, too, by the politicians who will be running below him on the ticket if he wins the nomination. Mr Romney has more backing among Republican congressmen and governors than all the other candidates combined.

Anyway, Mr Romney probably does not need to thrill voters to beat Mr Obama. When an incumbent president is running, says Charlie Cook, a political analyst, the election normally turns into a referendum on his performance, as long as his opponent is “colourless and odourless”. If so, the meticulously anodyne nature of Mr Romney’s campaign may be its greatest strength.

Se även: Ledaren ”America’s next CEO?”. Artikeln ”Mitt Romney marches on” och Schumpeter-krönikan ”Romney the revolutionary”. (Tidskriftsomslag och artiklar från The Economist den 14-20 januari 2012.)

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STATSMINISTER Lars Løkke Rasmussen satte agendan under söndagens debatt genom att ge Helle Thorning-Schmidt en minneslapp.

Under debatten vandrade statsministern över till oppositionsledaren och gav henne en ”huskeseddel” med sex positiva saker om Danmark och dansk ekonomi.

Anledningen var att Rasmussen var trött på Thorning-Schmidts ”sorte, sorte billede” av Danmark.

Samtidigt lade Venstre ut minneslappen på partiets hemsida och Facebook.

Detta var ett smart PR-drag. Nu talar alla om minneslappen samtidigt som Socialdemokraterne och opposition har hamnat på defensiven.

På frågan varför Thorning-Schmidt tvunget måste få lappen överlämnad på detta sätt svarade statsministern följande:

– Der er ingen TV-station, der vil lægge taletid til, så jeg tænkte, det var smartere at skrive det op på en seddel, sagde
statsministeren til en TV 2-journalist.

Tror du, hun vil læse den?

– Det tror jeg da bestemt, det går jeg da ud fra.

Er det dik nye kommunikationsmetode til Helle Thorning-Schmidt?

– Det er jo ikke kun Helle, der har brug for at blive erindret om det her. Det er sådan set os alle sammen. Der tegnes et billede af, at Danmark er et fuldstændigt nedslidt samfund. Det er jo ikke sandheden. Vi er ikke noget perfekt samfund, men vi er et godt samfund, sagde Løkke.

Venstre har varit partiet med de smartaste kampanjtricken. Frågan är bara om det räcker till valseger. Oppositionen leder fortfarande i Gallups opinionsundersökning.

Och snabbt dök det upp flera mer eller mindre lustiga alternativa ”minneslappar” på Internet.

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LÄNGE SÅG DET ut som om vänsterblocket skulle få en lätt valkampanj. Men nu ser det ut att kunna bli en fight ända till målsnöret.

Det borgerliga blocket är nämligen splittrat och i realiteten finns det inte längre någon borgerlig allians.

Men två Gallup undersökningar på rad visar nu att borgerliga blocket knappar in. Det röda blocket med Helle Thorning-Schmidt (S) i spetsen får 50, 9 % medan regeringspartierna och Liberal Alliance får 49 %.

Socialistisk Folkeparti med partiledare Villy Søvndal går fram 1 %. Detta på bekostnad av Socialdemokraterne som tappar nästa två procentenheter och hamnar på 24,6 %.

Men tittar man på den s.k. Berlingske Barometer – som är ett genomsnitt av de större opinionsundersökningarna – ligger vänsterblocket på 53 % och högerblocket på 47 5 %.

Så tipset är regeringsskifte den 15 september.

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VITA HUSET:  President Barack Obamas popularitet har dalat. Idag ligger siffrorna kring 45 %.

När han tillträdde i januari 2009 hade han rekordhöga siffror på 68 % i en opinionsundersökning från Gallup.

Det var en siffra som ingen hade nått upp till sedan John F. Kennedy. Något har uppenbart hänt.

 Michael Scherer, Time Magazineförklarar

One explanation for Obama’s steep decline is that his presidency rests on what Gallup’s Frank Newport calls a ”paradox” between Obama and the electorate. In 2008, Newport notes, trust in the federal government was at a historic low, dropping to around 25%, where it still remains. Yet Obama has offered government as the primary solution to most of the nation’s woes, calling for big new investments in health care, education, infrastructure and energy. Some voters bucked at the incongruity, repeatedly telling pollsters that even programs that have clearly helped the economy, like the $787 billion stimulus, did no such thing. Meanwhile, the resulting spike in deficits, which has been greatly magnified by tax revenue lost to the economic downturn, has spooked a broad sweep of the country, which simply does not trust Washington to responsibly handle such a massive liability.

[…]

As his poll numbers fell, Obama responded with his perpetual cool. His appeals to the grass-roots army that he started, through online videos for Organizing for America, took on a formal, emotionless tone. He acted less like an action-oriented President than a Prime Minister overseeing some vast but balky legislative machinery. When challenged about his declining popularity, the President tended to deflect the blame — to the state of the economy, the ferocity of the news cycle and right-wing misinformation campaigns. Aides treated the problem as a communications concern more than a policy matter. They increased his travel schedule to key states and limited his prime-time addresses. They struggled to explain large, unpopular legislative packages to the American people, who opposed the measures despite supporting many of the component parts, like extending health insurance to patients with pre-existing conditions or preventing teacher layoffs.

[…]

Instead of shifting course, Obama spoke dismissively about Republican efforts to play ”short-term politics.” […] At the same time, the base voters Obama had energized so well in ’08 went back into hibernation. […] In a rich irony, many of the same groups Obama turned out for the first time in record numbers had suffered the most from the recession and were the most likely to tune politics out.

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GALLUP DAILY TRACKING Trots utnämningen av Joseph Biden som vicepresidentkandidat och hypen inför demokraternas konvent tar John McCain ledningen i Gallups opinionsmätning.

Den senaste undersökningen (25 augusti) tappar Barack Obama ledningen för första gången. McCain får 46 % mot Obamas 44 %. 

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