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Posts Tagged ‘FiveThirtyEight’

KOMMER Barack Obama att bli återvald 2012? Nate Silver har analyserat tre faktorer som traditionellt används för att försöka förutspå ett presidentval.

Utifrån dessa faktorer – presidentens förtroendesiffror, ekonomins utveckling och de republikanska presidentkandidaternas ideologiska profil – har Silver skapat fyra sannolika valscenarier där Mitt Romney alternativt Rick Perry är Obamas utmanare.

Obama has gone from a modest favorite to win re-election to, probably, a slight underdog. Let’s not oversell this. A couple of months of solid jobs reports, or the selection of a poor Republican opponent, would suffice to make him the favorite again.

Nevertheless, this is an unusual circumstance. Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and both Bushes all looked like the favorite to win a year in advance of their re-election battles, either having strong approval ratings or good-enough ones accompanied by robust economic numbers. When we look at the last eight elected presidents, only Carter faced a situation worse than Obama’s: approval ratings in the low 30s rather than low 40s, the likelihood rather than the mere possibility of a recession, a primary challenge rather than a clear path to renomination and a crisis in Iran rather than a string of foreign-policy victories.

[…]

Average these four scenarios together and the probabilities come out to almost exactly 50-50. A month or two ago, when Perry and Romney appeared about equally likely to be the Republican nominee, it would therefore have been proper to think of the election as a toss-up.

With Perry having slumped in the polls, however, and Romney the more likely nominee, the odds tilt slightly toward Obama joining the list of one-termers. It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans. But Obama’s position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him.

Övrigt: Tidskriftsomslaget är The New York Times Magazine en 6 november 2011. FiveThirtyEight är Nate Silvers blogg på The New York Times.

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