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Archive for the ‘Information’ Category

H.M._King-Carl_XVI_Gustaf_TheRoyalCourtSweden_Photo_Bruno_Ehrs_W3

”Tisdagen den 30 april 1946, klockan 10.20 föddes Sveriges blivande kung, Carl XVI Gustaf, på Haga slott i Solna. Prinsen fick titlarna Sveriges arvfurste och hertig av Jämtland.”

Grattis på 70 årsdagen! På Sveriges Kungahus kan man läsa mer om kungens biografi.

Bild: Kungen fotograferad på Drottningholms slott. Foto: Bruno Ehrs/Kungahuset.se

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VAL 2016 | I USA överöser kampanjteamen ständigt väljarna med politisk reklam i tv under valrörelserna. Inte alla uppskattar detta.

Estimated Political Spending on ads 2016

Risken för de politiska kandidaterna är att reklamen irriterar och stöter bort mer än vad reklamen övertygar.

Kruxet blir då var man skall placera sin reklam och hur mycket reklamtid man skall köpa för att väljarna inte skall straffa kandidaten för att de stör dem i deras tv-soffor.

En av Barack Obamas tidigare kampanjmedarbetare, Carol Davidsen, ser ut att ha löst en del av problemet.

Tim Higgins skriver i Bloomberg Businessweek:

When Scott Tranter, a Washington political strategy adviser, wants to figure out which TV shows Republican voters are watching, he calls Rentrak, a company that uses information pulled from set-top cable and satellite boxes to track viewing habits. Rentrak’s data help Tranter determine exactly where candidates can get the most value for their ad dollars. Rather than advising campaigns to spend $3,000 on prime-time broadcast slots in Des Moines, he tells them to buy airtime during reruns of Law & Order on TNT, at a fraction of the cost.

It’s a strategy devised and perfected by former Obama campaign staffer Carol Davidsen, who joined Rentrak in January to oversee political analytics.

[…]

Near her desk, Davidsen keeps small maps of the swing states that will be most important in deciding the 2016 presidential election. As the director of integration and media targeting for Obama’s 2012 campaign, she created a tool known as “the Optimizer.” It not only used Rentrak numbers to spit out information on what the likeliest voters were watching but also told the campaign’s media buyers where they could reach the most voters for the lowest price.

Before the Optimizer, the campaign—like most of its predecessors—bought airtime during local news and prime-time broadcasts on the theory that those shows reached the most people. Davidsen’s analysis prompted the campaign’s ad buyers to triple their investment in cable ads, a strategy that made the spots 10 percent to 20 percent more effective, in the campaign’s estimation.

[…]

In the 2014 midterms, ad buyers for Republican candidates boosted the number of political commercials on local cable by almost 75 percent over the 2010 midterms, according to NCC Media, which sells local ad space for most cable carriers. Channels such as HGTV, FX, and the Food Network were suddenly inundated with campaign messages. “I definitely attribute that to better analytics behind TV advertising,” says Timothy Kay, director of political strategy at NCC. “Part of what’s great about the Rentrak data is that it’s given ratings to networks that we haven’t traditionally seen ratings on because of the small sample sizes that are shown by other media survey companies.”

[…]

With a team of eight, Davidsen is trying to solve one of the problems that bedeviled her when she was on the campaign side in 2012: how to make sure the same people don’t see a candidate’s ads too many times. Even with its sophisticated analytics, the Obama campaign ultimately realized it was bombarding 6 percent of households in Ohio with more than 60 ads a week. “That was not the desired intent,” Davidsen says, noting research that suggests voters can be provoked into voting against a candidate if they’re annoyed by seeing too many of the same TV ads. She says ad blitzes can bedevil better-funded campaigns, like Hillary Clinton’s or Bush’s. “The Hillary campaign’s problem is not going to be the lack of budget,” she says. “It’s going to be avoiding these 60 exposures.”

Bild: Bloomberg Businessweek.

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IT Båda Barack Obamas presidentvalskampanjer utmärktes av ett maximalt utnyttjande av de teknologiska landvinningarna kring sociala medier.

Fast Company

Nu vill presidenten gå vidare och göra samma sak på den federala nivån. Nu skall myndigheterna bli mer tillgängliga för medborgarna.

Att det hela inte gått helt smärtfritt visade problemen vid lanseringen av Healthcare.gov. Det gäller nu att undvika tidigare misstag.

Fast Company har beskrivit det pågående arbetet i artikel ”Inside Obama’s Stealth Startup”. Till hjälp har han en lång rad personer rekryterade från bl.a. Google och Facebook.

Samtidigt med artikel intervjuades Obama av tidskriftens editor-in-chief Robert Saflan.

You know, the federal government is full of really smart people, with a lot of integrity, who work really hard and do some incredible stuff. And it’s on par with the private sector on all those measures. But technology [has been] terrible. And for me, given that our campaigns both in 2008 and 2012 were built on being at the very cutting edge of social media and technology and empowering people and speed and nimbleness, to see how lumbering this thing was, that was pretty distressing.

So I started working fairly quickly to say, This wasn’t good enough, how do we make it better? We started putting more emphasis on technology and IT in each department. But I’ll be honest with you. With all the crises we were dealing with—the economy collapsing, the auto industry on the verge of collapse, winding down wars—this did not get the kind of laser-focused attention until ­Healthcare.gov, which was a well-­documented disaster, but ended up anyways being the catalyst for us saying, ”Okay, we have to completely revamp how we do things.” The results there were so outstanding, and because we discovered that there are folks at Google and Facebook and Twitter and all these amazing firms who really wanted to find some way to engage in public service—and many of them could afford to do so because they had done very well . . .

[…]

So the stakes here are making the government more competent, more efficient, more impactful?

Absolutely. Well, look, here’s what we know historically: That societies where there is no effective functioning government don’t do very well. ­Societies where government is all-consuming and quashes the private sector, they don’t do very well either. What you want is a partnership between a robust market-based system where people are innovating, and it’s dynamic, and things are moving fast, but you also want a government that makes sure roads are built and schools are teaching the next generation what they need to know and are willing to invest in things like basic research that serve as the foundation for private sector success and discovery . . . and has enough basic rules of the road so they aren’t spilling a bunch of sludge into the water, and the air is breathable. And, you know, our private sector thrives because we historically have had a very effective government. Now, over the last several years that has become more ossified and stuck. And it hasn’t kept pace with changes in technology. And part of what we’re doing here is to yank government—upgrade it, patch it, and ultimately transform it so that it is responsive and can interface with this new private sector in a much more effective way.

[…]

Arguably the next killer app for tech would be online voting. That’s a state and local issue, but I wondered whether you think that it’s something that should be a priority for technologists?

Absolutely. So we’ve been talking about the U.S. digital team, and a lot of this is: How do we deliver services better to customers? But there are other aspects of this process that we are trying to ­develop. We want technology to help shape policy. Think about our big data projects. We know that in the same way that the National Weather Service or the development of GPS and satellites created entire new ways that people organized their lives, that in health care, for example, there are going to be transformations taking place because of the ability to collect and analyze data and then transmit it in very individualized fashion to people.

And so in our policy making, we’re trying to make sure that insights and knowledge coming out of tech are informing how we think about regulations, how we think about opportunities to solve big challenges. But there is a third part of this. And that is: How do people engage and relate to their government? You know, our constitutional design is remarkable; it has lasted for many years. But it’s no secret that many people feel alienated and distant from government. And I think the opportunities for us to think about how tech can empower citizens and make them feel ownership for their government is really important.

Tidskriftsomslag: Fast Company, juli-augusti 2015.

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I den elektroniska upplagan av Svenskt Militärhistoriskt Biblioteks medlemstidskrift Pennan & Svärdet skriver man så här om Werner Herzog och Gabe Polskys dokumentärfilm ”Red Army”:

Under 1980-talet kunde praktiskt taget varenda svensk rabbla namnen på Sovjetunionens fruktade hockeyspelare: Krutov, Larionov, Makarov, Fetisov och Kasatonov. Men de var mer än idrottsmän. De var propagandavapen i Kremls tjänst.

I kalla krigets Sovjetunionen var idrott så mycket mer än bara underhållning. Den var ett vapen i kampen mot det kapitalistiska väst och ett sätt att visa världen det egna samhällssystemets överlägsenhet – precis som rymdforskningen. Banden mellan idrott och militär var starka, vilket inte minst märktes inom ishockeyn.

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SvenskaFlaggan2_stor

Gustav Vasa blev kung den 6 juni 1523. Regeringsformerna 1809 och 1974 utfärdades detta datum. 1983 blev dagen nationaldag. Tidigare kallades den för Svenska flaggans dag.

Mer: H.M. Konungens tal vid nationaldagsfirandet på Skansen den 6 juni 2015.

Bild: Program för Svenska Flaggans Dag 1954, Kungliga biblioteket, Stockholm

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pinterest

Det är trevligt att kunna meddela att The Campaign Dossier nu också finns på Pinterest, pinterest.com/campaigntrail.

Det kommer att bli mycket tidskriftsomslag med politiska teman, humor och minnesvärda bilder.

Framöver kommer vi att ”nåla” mycket av det som inte får plats på bloggen. Vi hoppas att det både kommer att inspirera och underhålla.

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OPINION | Väljarna uppför sig är inte alltid så logiskt och rationellt som vi vill tro.

Sex , Lies and the Ballot Box by Philip Cowley and Robert Ford

Philip Cowley och Robert Ford, författare till Sex Lies and the Ballot Box, lyfter i en artikel i Total Politics fram fyra märkliga väljarbeteenden.

People’s recall about whether they vote in an election is not great. By this, we don’t mean how they voted but just whether they voted. Around 14% get this wrong. Importantly, they are about six times more likely to report a false positive than a false negative, to claim they voted when they didn’t rather than the other way round. This is partly because voting is still (widely, though not universally) seen as a social norm, but as Paul Whiteley – he wrote that chapter for us – points out, plenty of people are willing to disregard that social norm: around one in five happily and correctly admit they didn’t vote. Those who think voting is unimportant don’t tend to lie about whether they did it or not. The problem comes with those who think voting is important. When they don’t manage to vote, they’re much more likely to mislead. Or, as Whiteley put it, “people only mislead when it matters”.

[…]

People who are very interested in politics are twice as likely to have an opinion on fictitious policies than those who aren’t interested. And men are 50% more likely to express an opinion than women, one reason why men seem to have higher levels of political knowledge than women: they’re less willing to admit their ignorance.

If you are going to stand for elected office, it’s better to be called Abbott than Zane, because reading to the end of a ballot paper takes time, and some people can’t be bothered. One study of council elections between 1973 and 2012 suggests that some 2,050 councillors elected in this period owed their election to ballot position alone.

[…]

And don’t be ugly. One study ran a test asking people to judge how attractive they found pairs of candidates at the 2010 election. The more attractive individual was more likely to have won the contest. In closely-fought contests – those constituencies decided by less than 5% of the vote – attractiveness alone successfully predicted the outcome of almost three-quarters of fights.

Och det är inte lönt att tro att svenska väljare skulle vara så mycket bättre än i Storitannien. Var fjärde väljare minns t.ex. inte vad de röstade på. Eller så minns de helt enkelt fel.

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