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Archive for september, 2015

I videon ”The Real Donald Trump” går Jeb Bushs kampanj till attack mot Trump.

Anledningen är att Bush har haft svårt att koppla greppet på Trump. Trump däremot har entusiasmerat de republikanska gräsrötterna. Han leder överlägset de flesta opinionsmätningar.

Om man inte lyckas få upp sina egna siffror måste man försöka få ner sina motståndares. Effektivast angreppspunkten är då att framhäva att Trump inte är så konservativ som han låter påskina.

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cigarettes-7 (1)

Campaign 88

DUKAKIS

for

PRESIDENT

KING SIZE FILTERS

Vintagecollectorguy skriver:

“Trim Reducing-Aid Cigarettes “curb your appetite” presumably with the tartaric acid they contain. Now there’s a concept! They’re from Cornell Drug Corp., 1958. And here’s something else that will curb your appetite: Michael Dukakis For President! That’s right, folks, as late as 1988 our beloved politicians were “smoking for victory.” To the right is an interesting vintage pack of Bravo filter kings.”

Läs mer: Om cigaretter och tobak hos ericwrobbel.com

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KAMPANJ |  Vad kommer en seger för Donald Trump innebära för USA? Och hur kommer han att styra USA om han blir president?

Bloomberg Businessweek September 7-September 13 2015

Eftersom han primärt är en affärsman får man kanske försöka finna lösningen på frågorna i hans sätt att styra sin affärsverksamhet.

Max Abelson, Bloomberg Businessweek, skriver: ”We’re talking business rather than politics—after all, that’s his central qualification for the job he’s seeking.”

Trump is selling himself to America as the king of builders, a flawless dealmaker, and masterful manager. But he isn’t really any of those things. Trump has built few skyscrapers this century, stumbling twice when he’s tried, and struggled with an array of other projects. Meanwhile, his corporate leadership is a kind of teenager’s fantasy of adult office power. From his Trump Tower desk in Midtown Manhattan he controls the teensiest details, rejects hierarchy, and picks top deputies by following his own recipe for promotion.

[…]

The Trump Organization is not the kind of place where employees can always tell you what colleagues are working on or what their titles are. What they agree on is Trump’s immersion in the minutest of details, from the fountain and urns to the marble of lobby floors.

“Not in a compulsive way, or sick way, but in a caring way,” says David Schutzenhofer, Bedminster’s manager. When asked about it, Trump says he pays attention to details, even though he has good managers who should be able to handle them. It’s hard to imagine how Trump’s management style would or could translate to government, where hierarchies are impenetrable, micromanagement ineffective, and expensive urns susceptible to congressional scrutiny.

[…]

Antagonizing enormous swaths of North America, mocking women, and startling anyone tuned in to a few minutes of his speechifying wouldn’t be a wise business move if those products were all he had, because he’d be alienating precious customers. But there’s more to Trump’s business, and not just because he has the real estate and golf portfolios. His brand isn’t kindness and inclusiveness; it’s aggression and extravagance and power. It’s a self-rendered notion of an elite man who controls and wins, even when he loses.

That doesn’t mean you can take the boasts about his empire literally.

[…]

Trump isn’t the biggest New York developer. He isn’t really a skyscraper developer anymore, and he hasn’t been for years. He put up huge buildings and casinos, borrowed to do it, nearly wiped out, came back as a brand name that often needed bigger partners, was smacked by the financial crisis when he tried to again take massive risks, and ended up with a profitable business anyway.

The lesson from the 150-story building he craved is the same one you get from stepping inside the company. It’s not the hugest in the whole world, and it’s not what it was supposed to be, but it’s something. And, like his politics, it can seem much, much bigger than it is.

Trump has crushed his presidential competition by presenting himself as the finest businessman ever to don a suit. Will his career’s blemishes hurt him? Could Americans who love the great, amazing, terrific, perfect version of Trump accept the flawed one? In his office, he tells me that someone said the cool thing about his race to be the leader of the free world is that if he loses he gets to go back to being Donald Trump again—only an even vaster version.

“So win, lose, or draw, I’m glad I did it,” he says. “Although it’s too early to say that yet.”

Tidskriftsomslag: Bloomberg Businessweek, 7 september 2015.

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James Forsyth, Dan Hodges, Fraser Nelson, Isabel Hardman och Sebastian Payne, alla på The Spectator, diskuterar vad Jeremy Corbyns seger innebär för Labour och Conservative Party.

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STRATEGI | Radikalism i dess olika former verkar vara det som entusiasmerar väljarna i både USA och Storbritannien.

The Economist September 5th-11th 2015

I Storbritannien har Labour valt socialisten Jeremy Corbyn till partiledare. Gladast för detta blev de konservativa.

I USA har en annan socialist, senator Bernie Sanders, lockat de riktigt stora skarorna. Till stor frustration för Hillary Clinton.

Och hos republikanerna är det naturligtvis Donald Trump som mest rört om i grytan. Enligt The Economist får republikanerna skylla sig själva för utvecklingen.

In the past generation, the number of Americans who call themselves consistently conservative or consistently liberal has doubled. Ideology and identity have coalesced, so that partisans do not just think alike about taxes or Iran, but live in the same neighbourhoods and have like-minded friends. Partisanship may yet curb Mr Trump’s rise.

An awareness of this may be why Mr Trump’s tactics are becoming more conventional, and more conventionally right-wing. His campaign has started touching on themes from the late 1960s, another era of bitter politics and widespread disenchantment in Middle America. The businessman points to rising murder rates in some large cities as proof that a recent focus on police killings and abusive arrests has left officers “afraid to talk to anybody”. Most police are “phenomenal people” and law and order is suffering, says Mr Trump, calling some cities “powder kegs ready to explode”. He has begun using the phrase “silent majority” to describe his supporters, four decades after Richard Nixon started using it to rally conservatives.

Mr Buchanan, who as one of Nixon’s speechwriters coined that phrase, hails Mr Trump for tapping into a mood of renewed nationalism. “The country is on fire,” he says. His main advice to Mr Trump is to rule out an independent or third-party candidacy if he fails to secure the Republican nomination—something which Mr Trump refused to do when pressed during the Fox News debate. Mr Buchanan warns that a third-party run instantly loses the support of those whose chief concern is stopping the Democrats. “If I were counselling Trump I’d tell him to stay inside the Republican Party,” he says. “It’s the only avenue that he has to the presidency of the United States.”

[…]

But appeals to partisan purity may be surprisingly ineffective in peeling away those who admire Mr Trump. His fan-base is characterised not by the fidelity of its conservatism, but by the ferocity of its rage. Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster, says he was shaken by a focus group he held on August 24th for two dozen self-declared Trump supporters. They included folk on the hard right but also ex-Obama voters. Unemployed Americans rubbed shoulders with the affluent. But the group had three things in common, says Mr Luntz. They are “mad as hell” about the state of America. Mr Trump speaks their language. And they do not care what anyone else says about him.

[…]

If Republican leaders do not know how to stop Mr Trump it is partly their own fault. Theirs is a smaller-government, pro-business party that wins elections by posing as an anti-government insurgency. Now they are facing the consequences: millions of voters dazzled by a showman who presents the next election as a hostile takeover, offering to turn America around with his dealmaking brilliance as if Congress, the Supreme Court and limits to presidential power are mere details to be negotiated. The Trump fantasy will fade at some point. It has already revealed a democracy in real trouble.

Tidskriftsomslag: The Economist den 5-11 september 2015.

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USA | Känslan att Hillary Clinton inte entusiasmerar väljarna har tilltagit sedan utmanaren Bernie Sanders har börjat locka stora skaror.

The New York Times-July 19-2015

Lösningen, enligt hennes campaign manager Robby Mook, är att låta Clinton få den tid hon behöver ute på fältet för att väljarna skall se henne som en historisk chans att kunna välja USA:s första kvinnliga president.

Detta skall kombineras med att väljarna får se en Hillary som gärna framhäver sig själv som en riktig medelsvensson som delar den vanlige amerikanens erfarenheter och vardag.

Detta är just så motsägelsefullt som det låter. Men konstigare kampanjupplägg har varit framgångsrika i amerikanska presidentvalskampanjer.

Tillsammans med en välfylld kampanjkassan, kalla nerver och ett målinriktad kampanjupplägg skall fixa valsegern.

Mark Leibovich rapporterade från hennes kampanj för The New York Times Magazine:

Hillary Clinton is private and guarded by nature, and three decades of being inspected like an exotic species has made her even more so. But right now, in the early days of what will be a 19-month campaign for the White House, she is trying to share and expound on her experi­ences, to project some greater measure of herself, big and small.

[…]

These are things Hillary Clinton has been talking about as she has undertaken the messy practice of what political types refer to as ‘‘reintroducing’’ — or, in Clinton’s case, re-re-re-reintroducing.

Still, all those introductions and forays into hostile territories have left her with battle scars. She is wary to a point where the control-freak tendencies of her campaign, especially with regard to how she is portrayed in the press, have reinforced an established story line: that she is sealed off and inaccessible and not like the rest of us. ‘‘DO YOU HAVE A PERCEPTION PROBLEM?’’ a reporter shouted out at her during Clinton’s last visit to New Hampshire, not quite the icebreaker you’d wish for when making reintroductions. As a rule, the media is not Clinton’s preferred confidant.

[…]

From the outset of the campaign, any hope that Clinton might unveil a more freewheeling style in keeping with the more unplugged sensibilities of today’s political and media culture lasted for all of, well, never. Signs of apparent spontaneity and whimsy have been nonexistent — she has been largely steadfast in avoiding interviews, with a campaign team that can convey a heavy-handed preoccupation with control.

[…]

Clinton’s enterprise has a grind-it-out quality reminiscent of Obama’s re-election strategy of 2012: cover your base, attack often. Her team will emphasize data, targeting and field operations — all specialties Mook sharpened as a wunderkind state director for Clinton in 2008 and in subsequent statewide and congressional races. Ground troops will identify supporters and make sure they vote, without giving much thought to persuading swing voters. In nearly every campaign event, the candidate catalogs all the fights she has waged on their ‘‘everyday American’’ behalf. That’s as close as there comes to a big idea in this expedition. To fight is a skill, and it creates a spectacle, but it hardly constitutes a vision. Nor is it a particularly fresh theme for Democratic presidential candidates, who have been trumpeting their ‘‘I’ll fight for you’’ credentials for decades (the future lobbyist Richard Gephardt used to punctuate his labor-heavy rallies with an impassioned ‘‘It’s your fight too!’’).

Clinton often says at her events that her campaign is ‘‘not about me.’’ All politicians say that (even though, of course, it is about them). But she is right in that she stands for bigger things, not least among them the goal of electing a woman as president. Her sex gives the campaign a built-in point of connection, and compared with what she did in 2008, Clinton has not hesitated to emphasize the factor known euphemistically as ‘‘the historic nature of her candidacy.’’

[…]

Mook projects a confidence belying his age and the stresses of his job. As the campaign manager, he sits in the bull’s-eye within the many circles of insanity that ring Planet Clintonia. (Actually, Mook does not sit, as his office is equipped with a standing desk.) What impressed me was how he dispatched my question about reconciling the divide between the candidate’s cautious persona and the private ‘‘Hillary I know’’ that her disciples swear by. ‘‘What I worry about is us getting up in our heads too much and trying to manufacture one thing or another,’’ he told me. ‘‘My priority is letting her take her time to get out there, let the voters see who she is, rather than some Wizard of Oz.’’

Tidskriftsomslag: The New York Times Magazine, 19 juli 2015.

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New Yorker

”Belly Flop” av Berry Blitt

“Donald Trump has entered the fray of Republican Presidential candidates with all the grace of a bully doing cannonballs and belly flops at the local swimming pool”, säger Barry Blitt med anledning av sin omslagsteckning.

Tidskriftsomslag: The New Yorker den 27 juli 2015

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USA | Ben Carsons kampanj går bra. Åtminstone i Iowa där han ligger jämt med Donald Trump i opinionsmätningar.

Ben Carson

Så vad är det Carson gör rätt?

Enligt Tessa Berenson i Time är det fyra saker som gör hans kampanj lite okonventionell jämfört med övriga republikanska presidentkandidater.

1. Friend Facebook

Gimmicks like Pet Week, when fans post cat pics, have earned Carson 2.7 million likes, nine times as many as Jeb Bush. If Carson posts, “‘I’ve scratched my left ear,’ we get 9,000 likes,” says aide Doug Watts.

2. Sell bus space

Dubbed the Healer Hauler after an online competition, Carson’s tour bus has children’s names written on the sides for $50 a pop, “so he would remember why he was running,” says Carson’s campaign manager.

3. Keep it small

With an average donation of $50, he raised $6 million in August alone. He raised $160,000 in two days by asking supporters to chip in $40 to pay his South Carolina ballot-filing fee.

4. Stay low-key

Carson’s team made a decision never to attack another candidate, even if Carson gets hit first. “It’s not Dr. Carson,” Watts says. “It’s not the way he works.”

Läs mer: “The Secret of Ben Carson’s Campaign Success: Facebook

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VAL | Labour har valt Jeremy Corbyn till ny partiledare. Politiskt kan detta liknas vid att Socialdemokraterna valt en H. C. Hermansson till partiledare.

Labourval till partiledare 2015

Många gör sig lustiga över den freak show som brukar utspela sig hos republikanerna i USA innan man äntligen valt sin presidentkandidat.

Men medan Donald Trump fortfarande förväntas förlora mot någon mer seriös kandidat lyckades Corbyn vinna partiledarskapet i Labour.

Labour i Storbritannien har plötsligt blivit ett parti långt ut på vänsterkanten. Corbyn har mer gemensamt med Syriza i Grekland än med Tony Blair i New Labour.

Det är bara en tidsfråga innan Jonas Sjöstedt och Vänsterpartiet börjar referera till Corbyns politik för att kunna legitimera sin egen.

Det är uppenbart att Corbyn lyckas entusiasmera många, speciellt unga, vänsterväljare under sin kampanj.

Övriga kandidater framstod som ganska bleka i jämförelse. Dessutom föll övriga på eget grepp eftersom ingen ville hoppa av och öka chanserna för någon i mitten av den ideologiska vänsterskalan..

Corbyn var en tydlig vänsterkandidat medan Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper och Liz Kendall var bleka alternativ till höger om Corbyn.

Ingen av dessa tre kandidater lyckades någon gång under valkampanjen ta ledningen i någon opinionsmätning.

Och när ingen av dessa kandidater ville lämna fältet fritt för någon av de andra till höger om Corbyn kom medlemmarnas röster att fördelas på fyra istället på två. Vilket gynnade Corbyn.

Corbyn vann en övertygande seger med 60 procent av rösterna vilket tyder på att han kanske hade vunnit oavsett vad övriga kandidater gjort.

Gladast vid sidan om Corbyns anhängare är nog de konservativa som nu ser en stor möjlighet att vinna även nästa val.

Kanske t.o.m. det nästan utplånade Liberal Democrats har en chans att nu börja plocka hem en del mittenväljare från Labour.

Även om strategerna inom Conservative Party firar Corbyns seger med champagne är det många som oroar sig över att partiet riskerar att falla på eget grepp om man nu tar chansen att driva politiken alltför mycket åt höger.

En konservativ ledarsida i Storbritannien skrev redan i juli så här:

Jeremy Corbyn […]produced a brief economic pamphlet that breezily suggested the Government should raise another £120 billion a year in tax, increasing the overall tax burden by almost a fifth. The document aroused no obvious controversy in Labour circles, and Mr Corbyn’s bandwagon rolled on. Such is the current state of the Labour Party.

Instead, it fell to Tony Blair to warn against a return to the Left-wing tax-and-spend agenda that made Labour an unelectable anathema to British business for a generation. Whatever his numerous other flaws and failings, he was right.

The most striking thing about Mr Blair’s warning is that it falls to him to issue it. More than ten years since he last contested an election, he remains the party’s most eloquent advocate of a more sensible approach to business and wealth. Labour’s leftward drift began when he left office in 2007, and continues still.

Consider the conduct of the putative front-runners in the leadership race, Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper. Both owe their careers to Mr Blair’s election victories, and are surely astute enough to see the sense in his words. Yet neither acts on it, each preferring to limp along in Mr Corbyn’s wake in the hope of being the second choice of his supporters. This is unedifying, to say the least.

At the general election, this newspaper recommended a Conservative government, since that was, and is, in the national interest. But Britain also needs a grown-up opposition prepared to debate the issues of the day, not a populist rabble interested only in echoing the wealth-hating delusions of the disaffected Left. It is quite possible to wish for a better Labour Party without wishing that party to be in power.

Instead of pandering to Mr Corbyn and his misguided supporters, those who aspire to be serious leaders of the Labour Party should confront him, reject his half-baked ideas and explain to those supporters that his path would lead the party to ruin. If that means some candidates dropping out of the race to offer Labour a single Stop Corbyn candidate, so be it.

If Mr Burnham and Ms Cooper are not prepared to take on Mr Corbyn, they do not deserve to lead their party, let alone the country. And if Labour does not resist the temptation to indulge in Mr Corbyn’s fantasy politics, it will deservedly pay a heavy price. Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.

Läs mer: The five pillars of Jeremy Corbyn’s bid to run Britain” kartlägger bl.a. Jeremy Corbyns allierade. 

Bild: The Telegraph.

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Russ Cargill

Russell ”Russ” Cargill (utsedd av USA:s president att leda Environmental Protection Agency): I want 10,000 tough guys, and I want 10,000 soft guys to make the tough guys look tougher! And here’s how I want them arranged: tough, soft, tough, tough, soft, tough, soft, soft, tough, tough, soft, soft, tough, soft, tough, soft!

[pause]

Soldier: Sir, I’m afraid you’ve gone mad with power.

Cargill: Of course I have. You ever tried going mad without power? It’s boring, no one listens to you.

The Simpsons Movie

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