AGENDA | En president hinner knappt bli omvald innan man börjar fundera över hans plats i historien.
Hur kommer man att bedöma president Barack Obama om fyra år? Det kan kännas lite väl tidigt att fundera över detta när han precis har hunnit svära presidenteden.
Men sanningen är att andra mandatperioden tenderar att bli en enda lång nedräkning tills det är dags att lämna över till nästa president.
Det är sällan en president har lika mycket energi under andra mandatperioden som under första. Redan nu ser vi denna vinkling i media. Har han några nya idéer? Orkar han hela vägen? Har han redan börjat slå av på takten?
En ledarartikel i The Economist har gjort sin bedömning om vad Obama måste fokusera på om han vill bli ihågkommen som en av de stora presidenterna.
Ett misslyckande innebär inte bara att han förpassas till de mediokras skara utan också att resultatet kan få svåra inrikes- och utrikespolitiska konsekvenser.
På det utrikespolitiska området ser man främst relationerna med Kina och arabvärlden som viktiga. Men över allt detta hänger USA:s finansiella och ekonomiska kris.
Och det är knappast problem han kommer att kunna lösa fullt ut även om alla demokrater och republikaner skulle köpa hans förslag rakt upp och ner.
[H]is first term was nowhere near successful enough to earn Mr Obama the mantle of greatness—or to guard him against the possibility of a disastrous second term wiping away all else.
[…]
The most fundamental is that America must put its fiscal house in order. Admiral Mike Mullen, then the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, was not exaggerating when he said in 2010 that America’s debt was the greatest strategic threat the country faces. Since then, $3 trillion has been added, pushing the dolorous pile above $16 trillion. Much of that has been caused by the recession and the stimulus to fight it; but by the end of this decade, with ever more baby-boomers retiring, the deficit is set to rise relentlessly. If Mr Obama hands over a country heading towards bankruptcy in January 2017, he can forget any idea of being remembered as an economic saviour.
Having ignored the recommendations of the deficit committee he himself established, Mr Obama has never given any sign, other than rhetorically, of being at all serious about cutting “entitlements”: these are the pensions and government health-care schemes for the poor and elderly that will overwhelm the budget as the population ages and medical costs continue their uncontrolled rise. Far from reforming entitlements, Mr Obama added an expensive new one in his first term: subsidised health insurance for lower-paid workers. And the president has just avoided coming up with any cuts in the deal made on January 1st to stop America heading over the fiscal cliff, despite bullying the Republicans in Congress to accept tax rises on the rich.
An America that cannot deal with its financial problems other than through repeated crises followed by shabby postponements will eventually go broke. And its capacity to offer leadership to the world is gravely diminished. Why should leaders in Beijing, Brasília, Bogotá or even Berlin see anything to emulate in Washington? If Mr Obama corrects this, he will be seen as a transformative figure. If not, future generations will look back on “the Bush-Obama years” as a time when two presidents stoked up a very foreseeable disaster.
Bild: Tidskriftsomslaget är The Economist den 19-25 januari 2013.
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