KAMPANJ | Det är lätt att drabbas av abstinensbesvär efter en valrörelse. Botemedlet är en rejäl dos av valsanalyser.
”The 2013 Campaign” av John Heilemann
New York, 19 november 2012
That the essence of Team Obama’s reelection strategy was to capitalize on his strength with what National Journal’s Ronald Brownstein calls “the coalition of the ascendant” had long been clear. Back in May, I wrote a cover story for this magazine laying out Chicago’s plan to focus laserlike on four key voting blocs: African-Americans, Hispanics, college-educated white women, and voters aged 18 to 29. At bottom, the Obaman theory of the case was that, despite the fragility of the recovery and the doubts many voters had about POTUS’s capacity to put America on the path to prosperity, the deft exploitation of coalition politics, together with the ruthless disqualification of Romney as a credible occupant of the Oval Office, could secure the president a second term. That in 2012, in other words, demographics would trump economics.
“Obama’s new majority” av John O’Sullivan
The Spectator, 10 november 2012
‘I’ve come back to Iowa one more time to ask for your vote,’ said President Obama at an emotional ‘last ever’ campaign meeting. ‘Because this is where our movement for change began, right here. Right here.’ And his eyes briefly moistened. The nostalgia was doubtless sincere, and the address correct, but it was misleading to describe his 2012 election campaign as a continuation of his earlier ‘movement for change’. In reality, it has been a smoothly ruthless operation to distract attention from a record that has been disappointingly bereft of change. He triumphed over himself as much as over the hapless Mitt Romney.
“The Party Next Time” av Ryan Lizza
The New Yorker, 19 november 2012
When historians look back on Mitt Romney’s bid for the Presidency, one trend will be clear: no Republican candidate ever ran a similar campaign again. For four decades, from Richard Nixon to Ronald Reagan through the two Bush Presidencies, the Republican Party won the White House by amassing large margins among white voters. Nixon summoned the silent majority. Reagan cemented this bloc of voters, many of whom were former Democrats. Both Bushes won the Presidency by relying on broad support from Reagan Democrats. In that time, Republicans transformed the South from solidly Democratic to solidly Republican, and they held the White House for twenty-eight out of forty years. Last Tuesday, Romney won three-fifths of the white vote, matching or exceeding what several winning Presidential candidates, including Reagan in 1980 and Bush in 1988, achieved, but it wasn’t enough.
“Baksmällan i Washington” av Martin Gelin
Fokus, 9-15 november 2012
USA har en lång politisk tradition av att ställa grupper mot varandra så snart ett val närmar sig. Politiska strateger har med denna metod söndrat och härskat sig till knappa majoriteter i delstaterna och struntat i minoriteten som inte fått politisk representation. Det var den vanan Obama skulle bryta. 2008 hade hans kampanj mottot »Respect, empower, include«. I år lade man till ett sista ord: »Win«. Och med den nya förmågan att rikta kampanjer mot enskilda väljare gjorde man allt för att vinna exakt 50,1 procent av väljarna i respektive delstat.
Läs mer: Tidigare inlägg med valsanalyser från tidskriftsvärlden.
Tidskriftsomslagen: Översta är formgivet av konstnären Craig Redman. Tydligen ”all the rage” för närvarande. Mark Ulriksen skapade ”Rhapsody in Blue” för The New Yorker. Hans tankar om omslaget hittar man här.